Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
